After a volatile start to the month, the U.S. dollar was mostly unchanged overnight as market participants jockeyed positions ahead of this morning’s jobs numbers.
Overview
The print has sparked quick volatility throughout the fx market. Non-farm payrolls beat expectations coming in at 263K, better than the 255K estimated by economists. The revisions to the past two months also increased 11K, and the unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5%.The dollar has strengthened following the release of the positive jobs data as it keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve. The 263K gain is the smallest advance since the spring of 2021 but still represents a healthy job market. The Fed has maintained its hawkish stance even before today’s print. This week Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said benchmark rates would rise to 4.75% by early next year. And Minneapolis Fed Chair Kashkari said the Fed is “quite a ways away” from stopping their path. Firming expectations that the Fed will hike rates by 75 basis points at their next meeting means the greenback may claw back some of its losses from the last week and a half.
What to Watch Today…
- No major economic events are scheduled for today
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CAD ⇑
The Canadian dollar initially gained against the U.S. dollar but has given back some gains in early trading following a strong U.S. jobs print. Canadian jobs data also slightly beat expectations. Our northern neighbors added 21.1K jobs last month, better than the estimate of 20K. The job gains represent the first advance in three months. The Canadian unemployment rate fell to 5.2% in September versus 5.4% in August.
AUD ⇑
Commodity-linked currencies modestly gained against the U.S. dollar overnight as the price of oil popped higher. The biggest gainer was the Norwegian krone which advanced half a percent. The move has since reversed as the strong U.S. jobs report has outshined the uptick in energy prices.
