WHAT TO WATCH:
- Singapore CPI
- South Korea imports, exports
FRIDAY TRADING SESSIONS (as of ~4pm New York time):
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.5% on Friday. Ends the week down 0.5%, worst week in a month, as the war in Iran was on the verge of entering a fourth week
- “The inflationary impacts of the war in the Middle East are going to be the main focus for the short term,” said Monex’s Andrew Hazlett
- Traders turned bullish on the dollar for the first time since the start of 2026, per Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday
- Asia Pacific G-10 FX
- Treasury 10-year yields rose 13.8bps to 4.39%; while the 5s30s curve flattened 1.6bps to 94.2bps
TOP NEWS:
- US and Iran exchanged fresh threats as the war entered its fourth week, suggesting there may be no near-term conclusion.
- Donald Trump on Saturday gave Iran a two-day deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or have its power plants bombed.
- Iran said it would completely close the strait if its power facilities come under attack and strike energy, information tech and desalination infrastructure that belong to the US and Israel in the region
- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have begun placing sizable orders to buy mortgage-backed securities, which could help cushion a recent spike in borrowing rates for homebuyers.
- Chinese Premier Li Qiang pledged to boost imports and widen services-sector market access as part of broader efforts to balance its trade with partners.
- Local-currency debt is quickly becoming a pain trade for investors since the start of the Iran war.
- Traders turned positive on the US dollar for the first time this year as war in the Middle East jolts energy costs higher and supports the currency’s status as a haven.
- Copper slipped amid a broad selloff across risk assets as the deepening war in the Middle East stoked concerns about inflation and global growth.
- Bond traders are scrambling for a new strategy after the oil-driven inflation shock triggered by the war in Iran scuppered the popular bet on interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
- A tanker carrying a cargo of diesel believed to be bound for Cuba updated its destination to Puerto Cabello, a major port in Venezuela, after the US clarified that the communist-run island remains ineligible to receive Russian fuel.
KEY VIEWS:
Deutsche Bank Says Oil Shock Unlike 2022 and May Limit USD Gains
RBC Boosts Aussie Dollar Forecast Amid Commodities Pressure
Wells Fargo Closes Long EUR/CHF as Europe’s Growth Outlook Sours
DATA RELEASED FRIDAY:
- 20:30: (Canada) Jan. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, actual 0.8%, est. 1.2%, prior 0.1%, revised 0%
- Jan. Retail Sales MoM, actual 1.1%, est. 1.5%, prior -0.4%
- Feb. Industrial Product Price MoM, actual 0.4%, est. 1.1%, prior 2.7%
- Feb. Raw Material Price Index MoM, actual 0.6%, est. 2.4%, prior 7.7%
ECONOMIC DATA (All times HK):
- March 23 08:00: (South Korea) March Exports 20 Days YoY, prior 23.5%
- March Imports 20 Days YoY, prior 11.7%
- March 23 13:00: (Singapore) Feb. CPI YoY, est. 1.2%, prior 1.4%
- Feb. CPI NSA MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -0.5%
- Feb. CPI Core YoY, est. 1.3%, prior 1.0%
CENTRAL BANKS (All times HK):
- Nothing major scheduled
BOND SALES/PURCHASES (All times HK):
- For corporate bonds, see New Issue Monitor
- Nothing major scheduled MARKETS
AS OF 4pm New York time:
- USD/JPY +1.0% to 159.30 (range 157.64–159.39)
- EUR/USD -0.3% to 1.1558 (range 1.1525–1.1595)
- AUD/USD -1.0% to 0.7017 (range 0.7005–0.7097)
- NZD/USD -0.8% to 0.5826 (range 0.5818–0.5892)
- USD/CAD -0.1% to 1.3721 (range 1.3700–1.3748)
- GBP/USD -0.7% to 1.3333 (range 1.3299–1.3442)
- USD/CHF little changed at 0.7884 (range 0.7855–0.7906)
- 1-mo. USD/TWD NDF +0.6% to 32.045 (range 31.849–32.062)
- Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index +0.5% to 1,211.19 (range 1,205.08–1,212.46)
- JPM FX Volatility Index +0.4% to 8.55 (range 8.52–8.55)
- US Stocks
- Commodities
