WHAT TO WATCH:
- New Zealand export, trade balance data
- Singapore CPI
FRIDAY TRADING SESSIONS (as of ~4pm New York time):
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
- Asia Pacific G-10 FX
- USD/JPY up 0.5% to 159.67
- NOTE: Dollar Winning Streak Extends Into Fifth Week as Yen Slumps
- “I don’t think we’ll see another intervention unless we hit 165 levels, but if we do, it’ll likely be larger than the last two,” said Helen Given, a foreign-exchange trader at Monex Inc. “The fundamentals support this slow creep for USD/JPY, so I don’t see a lot of room for currency officials to act without getting flagged on it”
- USD/JPY up 0.5% to 159.67
- AUD/USD fell 0.2% to 0.6643
- NZD/USD little changed at 0.6120
- Treasury 10-year yields were little changed at 4.25%; while the 5s30s curve steepened 0.2bps to 12.3bps
TOP NEWS:
- Japan’s record share market rally earlier this year is looking like a distant memory as foreign investors sell off stocks in a sluggish economy.
- Emerging-market assets dipped on Friday amid fresh sings of resilience in the US economy and a tech selloff that spread into Asian markets.
- Investors in emerging-market debt are once again turning to long-duration bonds, a popular bet at the end of last year that burnt many of them in the first months of 2024.
- Global corporate bonds are on track for their worst month since late last year by one measure, reigniting the debate about the relative value of credit versus other fixed-income classes.
- Four of the biggest banks on Wall Street must improve their blueprints for a hypothetical wind-down after top US regulators found weaknesses in their plans.
- Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called central bank chief Roberto Campos Neto a “political and ideological adversary,” escalating his criticism of the monetary authority after policymakers halted a yearlong easing cycle this week.
KEY VIEWS:
- Citigroup Says Dollar Carry ‘Back in Vogue,’ Goes Long USD/CHF
- French Elections Stand to Widen FX Basis Swaps, BofA Says
- Barclays Boosts 2024, 2025 Treasury Bill Supply Forecasts
DATA RELEASED FRIDAY:
- (Canada) May Raw Material Price Index MoM, actual -1.0%, est. -0.6%, prior 5.5%, revised 5.3%
- May Industrial Product Price MoM, actual 0%, est. 0.4%, prior 1.5%, revised 1.4%
- April Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, actual 1.8%, est. 0.6%, prior -0.6%, revised -0.8%
- April Retail Sales MoM, actual 0.7%, est. 0.7%, prior -0.2%, revised -0.3%
- (US) June S&P Global US Composite PMI, actual 54.6, est. 53.5, prior 54.5
- June S&P Global US Services PMI, actual 55.1, est. 54.0, prior 54.8
- June S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, actual 51.7, est. 51.0, prior 51.3
- May Existing Home Sales MoM, actual -0.7%, est. -1.0%, prior -1.9%
- May Home Resales with Condos, actual 4.11m, est. 4.1m, prior 4.14m
- May Leading Index, actual -0.5%, est. -0.3%, prior -0.6%
ECONOMIC DATA (All times HK):
- 06:45: (New Zealand) May Imports NZD, prior 6.32b
- 06:45: May Trade Balance NZD, prior 91m
- 06:45: May Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD NZD, prior -10.1b
- 06:45: May Exports NZD, prior 6.42b
- 13:00: (Singapore) May CPI Core YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
- 13:00: May CPI NSA MoM, est. 0.7%, prior 0.1%
- 13:30: (Japan) May Tokyo Dept Store Sales YoY, prior 10.8%
- 13:30: May Nationwide Dept Sales YoY, prior 8.9%
CENTRAL BANKS (All times HK):
- Nothing major scheduled
BOND SALES/PURCHASES (All times HK):
- For corporate bonds, see New Issue Monitor
- Nothing major scheduled
MARKETS AS OF 4pm New York time:
- USD/JPY +0.4% to 159.59 (range 158.67–159.63)
- EUR/USD -0.1% to 1.0692 (range 1.0671–1.0721)
- AUD/USD -0.2% to 0.6643 (range 0.6632–0.6670)
- NZD/USD little changed at 0.6121 (range 0.6109–0.6134)
- USD/CAD +0.1% to 1.3697 (range 1.3675–1.3718)
- GBP/USD -0.1% to 1.2648 (range 1.2623–1.2675)
- USD/CHF +0.3% to 0.8944 (range 0.8905–0.8945)
- 1-mo. USD/TWD NDF little changed at 32.337 (range 32.262–32.361)
- Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index little changed at 1,268.03 (range 1,266.62–1,269.57)
- JPM FX Volatility Index +0.8% to 7.48 (range 7.42–7.48)
- US Stocks
- S&P 500 -0.2% to 5,464.63 (range 5,452.03–5,478.31)
- DJIA little changed at 39,149.31 (range 39,061.67–39,257.18)
- Commodities
- WTI Crude -0.8% to $80.62/bbl (range $80.35–$81.79)
- Gold -1.6% to $2,322/oz (range $2,317–$2,369)
- Copper -2.8% to $4.44/lb (range $4.43–$4.56)
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK by Bloomberg strategist Robert Fullem
- USD/JPY — Keeps positive tone above 55-DMA, upper Bollinger
- Resistance: 160.17, YTD high; 160.20, April 17 1990 high
- Support: 155.82, 55-DMA; 154.45, April 15 high
- EUR/USD — Stays neutral as positive seasonals offset weakness
- Resistance: 1.0788, May 30 low; 1.0916, June 4 high;
- Support: 1.0650, May 1 low; 1.0601, YTD low
- EUR/JPY — Supported in channel, above 55-DMA
- Resistance: 171.02, upper Bollinger; 170.89, June 3 high
- Support: 168.24, lower Bollinger; 167.79, 55-DMA
- AUD/USD — Stays in 0.66-0.67 range, 55-DMA supports
- Resistance: 0.6693, upper daily Bollinger; 0.6729, Jan. 12 high
- Support: 0.6588-89, 55-DMA and lower Bollinger; 0.6552, 200-DMA
- NZD/USD — Neutral bias hovering above 100-week MA
- Resistance: 0.6204, upper Bollinger; 0.6217, March 8 high
- Support: 0.6083, May 22 low; 0.6047, May 3 high
- USD/KRW — Bullish toward YTD high, upper Bollinger caps
- Resistance: 1391.14, upper Bollinger; 1400.13, YTD high
- Support: 1371.29, 55-DMA; 1344.92, May 16 low
- USD/SGD — Neutral in narrow Bollinger range
- Resistance: 1.3558, upper Bollinger; 1.3572, May 9 high
- Support: 1.3453, lower Bollinger; 1.3365, March 21 low
- USD/MYR — Neutral near 200-DMA
- Resistance: 4.7327, May 3 low; 4.7364, 100-DMA
- Support: 4.6772, May 16 low; 4.6750, March 12 low
- USD/INR — Stays positive near YTD high, gap lower
- Resistance: 83.6700, YTD high; 83.7156, upper Bollinger
- Support: 83.1700, June 3 gap high; 82.9200, March 18 high
- USD/IDR – Stays bullish on new YTD high, nearly overbought
- Resistance: 16478, YTD high; 16490, upper Bollinger
- Support: 15914, April 5 high; 15843, Jan. 26 high
