WHAT TO WATCH:
- Japan consumer confidence
- Philippines GDP
WEDNESDAY TRADING SESSIONS (as of ~4pm New York time):
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 0.4%
- Marc Chandler, chief market strategist of Bannockburn Global, said that Bessent’s comments were “damage control” after Friday’s news reports about the NY Fed conducting a rate check on behalf of the US Treasury. “I think the sharpness of the move caught them by surprise”
- Asia Pacific G-10 FX
- USD/JPY up 0.8% to 153.39
- “The yen movement over the past few days has been a major drag on the dollar, so this confirmation of non-intervention is solidly dollar positive,” said Andrew Hazlett, a foreign-exchange trader at Monex Inc
AUD/USD rose 0.3% to 0.7029
NZD/USD rose 0.1% to 0.6051
- Treasury 10-year yields rose 0.2bps to 4.25%; while the 5s30s curve flattened 1.0bps to 101.9bps TOP NEWS:
- Treasuries held onto a modest loss after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady as expected and cited signs of stabilization in the US jobless rate.
- Strong European growth and early signs that Germany’s fiscal stimulus is feeding through to the economy prompted Manulife Investment Management to raise its year-end euro forecast to $1.25 from $1.20, senior global macro analyst Erica Camilleri said in an interview.
- Brazil will tap international debt markets more often in 2026 with bond issuances denominated in a trio of currencies, the Brazilian Treasury announced in a plan released on Wednesday.
- One of Canada’s biggest institutional investors is citing the Swiss franc, Japanese yen and gold as potential alternatives to the US dollar as President Donald Trump’s policies pressure the greenback.
- Oil rose to a fresh four-month high after Trump threatened another attack on Iran, urging Tehran to negotiate a nuclear deal.
KEY VIEWS:
DATA RELEASED WEDNESDAY:
- 20:00: (US) Jan. MBA Mortgage Applications, actual -8.5%, prior 14.1%
- 22:45: (Canada) Jan. Bank of Canada Rate Decision, actual 2.25%, est. 2.25%, prior 2.25%
- 03:00: (US) Jan. FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Boun, actual 3.75%, est. 3.75%, prior 3.75%
- Jan. FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Boun, actual 3.50%, est. 3.50%, prior 3.50%
- Jan. Fed Interest on Reserve Balanc, actual 3.65%, est. 3.65%, prior 3.65%
- Jan. Fed Reverse Repo Rate, actual 3.50%, prior 3.50% ECONOMIC DATA (All times HK):
- 05:45: (New Zealand) Dec. Trade Balance NZD, prior -163m
- Dec. Exports NZD, prior 6.99b
- Dec. Imports NZD, prior 7.15b
- Dec. Trade Balance 12 Mth YTD NZD, prior -2.06b
- 07:50: (Japan) Jan. Foreign Buying Japan Bonds, prior JPY1.47t
- Jan. Japan Buying Foreign Stocks, prior JPY272.5b
- Jan. Net Stocks Investment, prior JPY874b
- Jan. Japan Buying Foreign Bonds, prior -JPY361.4b
- 08:00: (New Zealand) Jan. ANZ Business Confidence, prior 73.6
- Jan. ANZ Activity Outlook, prior 60.9
- 08:00: (Singapore) MAS Jan. 2026 Monetary Policy Statement
- 08:30: (Australia) 4Q Import Price Index QoQ, prior -0.4%
- 4Q Export Price Index QoQ, prior -0.9%
- 10:00: (Philippines) 4Q GDP YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 4.0%
- 4Q GDP SA QoQ, est. 0.9%, prior 0.4%
- 2025 GDP Annual YoY, est. 4.6%, prior 5.6%
- 12:00: (Thailand) Dec. Capacity Utilization ISIC, prior 55.49
- Dec. Mfg Production Index ISIC NSA, est. -0.40%, prior -4.24%
- 13:00: (Japan) Jan. Consumer Confidence Index, est. 37.1, prior 37.2
- (Singapore) Dec. Unemployment rate SA, est. 2.0%, prior 2.0% CENTRAL BANKS (All times HK):
- Nothing major scheduled
BOND SALES/PURCHASES (All times HK):
- For corporate bonds, see New Issue Monitor
- 09:35: New Zealand to Sell NZ$25 Million 3.25% 2050 Linkers on Jan. 29
- 09:35: New Zealand to Sell NZ$225 Million 1.5% 2031 Bonds on Jan. 29
- 09:35: New Zealand to Sell NZ$175 Million 3.5% 2033 Bonds on Jan. 29
- 09:35: New Zealand to Sell NZ$50 Million 2.75% 2051 Bonds on Jan. 29
- 11:00: Bank of Thailand to Sell 15 Billion Thb of 2027 Bonds On Jan 29
- 11:30: Malaysia to Sell 3 Billion Myr of New 2056 Bonds On Jan 29 MARKETS AS OF 4pm New York time:
- USD/JPY +0.8% to 153.40 (range 152.18–154.05)
- EUR/USD -0.8% to 1.1945 (range 1.1896–1.2045)
- AUD/USD +0.2% to 0.7028 (range 0.6977–0.7032)
- NZD/USD +0.1% to 0.6050 (range 0.6008–0.6053)
- USD/CAD -0.1% to 1.3558 (range 1.3536–1.3615)
- GBP/USD -0.4% to 1.3799 (range 1.3750–1.3849)
- USD/CHF +1.0% to 0.7691 (range 0.7612–0.7728)
- 1-mo. USD/TWD NDF +0.5% to 31.246 (range 31.044–31.343)
- Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index +0.4% to 1,179.50 (range 1,174.87–1,183.42)
- JPM FX Volatility Index +2.0% to 7.72 (range 7.57–7.72)
- US Stocks
S&P 500 little changed at 6,978.06 (range 6,963.46–7,002.28)
DJIA little changed at 49,015.72 (range 48,901.49–49,150.34)
- Commodities
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK:
