The U.S. Dollar is trading in mostly favorable ranges to begin a short a week that follows a long weekend with geopolitical developments that could change mood in markets.
Overview
Indeed, equities across the globe and U.S. futures are looking at positive performances with traders and investors welcoming the idea that the war between Ukraine and Russia can come to an end. Although there is criticism regarding giving Putin any concessions, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed to begin talks with Moscow. Additionally, the appetite for risk has also been aided by good reports of earnings in the tech sector, particularly microchips like Intel Corp.
This week will be lighter in terms of data points and thus we will be at the mercy of headlines, especially those that give further detail on the timeline for a ceasefire or anything that can materialize such as a negotiations meeting. Tomorrow, we will see the FOMC Minutes from their last meeting. Indicators will be few domestically, with S&P Purchasing Managers Index the main figure out on Friday.
What to Watch This Week…
- U.S. FOMC Minutes on Wednesday
- U.S. S&P PMIs on Friday
- Monex USA Online is always open
Complete Economic Calendar can be found here.
NZD ⇓
The “Kiwi” is cooling down after having reached its strongest level in two months ahead of today’s policy announcement by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. While the currency has been lifted among others because of a revival in global growth optimism thus far in 2025, the RBNZ is expected to deliver a 50-basis-point cut to its main interest rate. It would be the third reduction of such size in a cycle of stimulus-driven monetary measures to counter the stagnation across the Pacific Rim. If the commentary from officials is carried in a good mood about where the economy is, the decision to cut may not affect NZD as much while we also wait to hear about plans for slashing rates or slowing down.
MXN ⇑
The Mexican Peso is the only exception today, being spared from losses to the Buck. A solid economy in the U.S. while Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has made progress with dealing with tariff pressures has given MXN room to breathe. While economic indicators have been showing contractions in various gauges of productivity, MXN has been resilient. This will be tested on Friday we get the final reading for Q4 Gross Domestic Product figures. On Thursday, we will see Minutes from the last Banxico monetary policy meeting as well as December Retail Sales. MXN could rally if the final data on Friday shows the economy avoided a contraction of (-0.6%).
