The U.S. Dollar is trading in mostly negative ranges as markets digest the official reopening of the U.S. Government after the longest shutdown in its history
Overview
Congress got together to vote on a spending bill that became official after presidential signed approval. The last seven weeks have been plagued with blindness over data, which is potentially not going to be fully released after mixed narratives about whether figures will be available soon or never. For now, some risk-taking is returning after a halt to a rally in equities based on concerns about having no eyes on official numbers for inflation, labor, and other items as well as high estimates for sales and earnings not convincing investors.
Meanwhile, the odds of the Fed cutting interest rates when they gather in December are falling, now standing at just 52.0%. Contrary to what normally occurs when the Fed is predicted to be “hawkish,” the Buck is not gaining ground. We are eager to see the resolution to bringing out information so that clarity and guidance can be attempted with comprehensive analysis. We are at the mercy of headlines now that the government anxiety fades. The tight margins of trading recently in FX flows have only moved USD down by about half a percent since November started.
What to Watch This Week…
- Monex USA Online is always open
EUR ⇑
The Euro jumped a bit this morning as reports of the U.S. government getting back have boosted currencies over the Buck with some worries about the release of official data. Since they are getting numbers on the other side of the pond, Industrial Production figures from September revealed success in returning to positive territory. With Manufacturing and Industrial productivity on the rise, it makes sense for the shared currency to rise on some merit. The second reading of Q3 Gross Domestic Product will be out tomorrow, expected to show a 0.2%, which if it were higher could boost Euro rapidly to higher levels we have experienced in the past few months.
CAD ⇑
The Canadian Dollar improved a bit, reaching its strongest value over the Buck since last week of October. This is a big move for the “Loonie” in its recovery from a rapid fall that saw it sink to its weakest point since April last week. Canada’s economy has not enjoyed many positives, but at least it seems that construction and demand for real estate is up with increased Building Permits in September after a bad run earlier in the Summer. Recent tensions between Canada and the U.S. have eased a bit after some conversations, so the indication of progress bodes well for CAD.
