Daily Market Update

U.S. Dollar mostly quiet, Yen flounders ahead of Sunday

February 04, 2026

The U.S. Dollar is trading in mixed ranges across the board as markets continue to trade without eyes on labor data, but in expectation of growth figures from Purchasing Managers Indices

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Without JOLTS and other key job numbers, traders and investors have had to focus on speculation over central banking as well as current earnings for large firms. On the latter, Walmart became the first retailer to hit US$1.0 trillion in market valuation. Regarding central bank action, markets seemed shaken by the decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates for the first time in two years. It is a sign the inflationary pressures are building up accompanied by reports that companies are finding it harder to keep absorbing the true cost effects of tariffs to prevent the consumers paying for them.

S&P Global PMIs for January will be out at 9:45AM. Ever since July, the indicator has been floundering, as surveys show hesitation in investing long-term as many changes have impacted on projects and decision-making. On Friday, we expect to get a take from the consumption side of things with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for February. At the time of writing, some geopolitical tensions made the headlines with worries over a drone that had to be shot down by American forces. As far as the Buck’s weakening trend, according to the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index the value overall for the currency has dropped 1.8% since mid-January.

 

What to Watch This Week…

  • Banxico meeting tomorrow 
  • US Nonfarm Payrolls, Friday 8:30AM
  • Monex USA Online is always open

The complete Economic Calendar can be found here.

 

EUR ⇑

The Mexican Peso has been moving mildly, but it is currently not far from trading at its strongest level over the Buck since end of May 2024. Banxico, the central bank, will be meeting tomorrow, expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Current main rate stands at 7.0%. The risk-on mood has also helped MXN along with volatility in oil and energy prices in general. We will have crucial inflation data in the form of Consumer Price Index next week as well as other productivity figures such as Industrial Production.

JPY ⇓

The Japanese Yen has been the biggest mover this morning, dropping by over half a percent in value as markets have jitters over the elections taking place February 8thThis Sunday, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is hoping to consolidate power and achieve a standalone majority. Additionally, the PM herself explained that in her view, a weaker Yen carries benefits. Hedge funds are expected to increase their bets against the Yen as the politics of the typically stable country start to make investors wonder about the future of spending as well as relations with China. A surprise result could drive Yen all over the place.

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