The U.S. Dollar is trading in weak ranges all across the board following optimism from markets that the U.S. will work on winding down the strikes over Iran, thus bringing some relief to energy speculation.
U.S. President Donald Trump along with Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that there is interest in bringing an end to armed aggression even if a deal with Iran is not necessarily reached right away.
Energy analysts have voiced serious concern that another 5-6 weeks of a shut Strait of Hormuz without allowing passage of oil shipments could lead to outrageous surges in barrels, perhaps as high as $200.00 for Brent as well as West Texas crude. The dangers seem to be understood by the White House, which is now aiming to get some concessions from Iranian leadership, which has also informed of growing intent to achieve some ceasefire agreement.
While the Buck rose in March, April is starting off with a backlash against the strengthening that USD experienced primarily as a safe haven as well as the result of a display of military power that seemed likely to make for a shorter conflict. Instead, worries globally are adding to inflationary pressures and with items such as fertilizer being stuck in the strait, food production may also become problematic. It also means many central banks are focusing on combatting the undesirable growth of prices by raising interest rates or at least getting away from stimulus-driven policy. In order to assess productivity costs for suppliers, we will be monitoring the reaction after ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is released at 10AM.
What to Watch This Week…
- US Nonfarm Payrolls, Friday 8:30AM
- Monex USA Online is always open
EUR ⇑
The Euro mounted a comeback just like all other major peers as the prospect of the chaos in the Middle East easing towards a resolution is making for flourishing markets. March marked a turning point for Euro, which had been riding high until the war started to cause issues along with revelation of very poor growth at the end of 2025. As of now, the shared currency is getting away from its weakest point since thanksgiving. Without ton of major data to chew, all eyes are on the developing news regarding Iran and how the opening of the Strait would be a major alleviation for all.
MXN ⇑
The Mexican Peso has managed to basically erase most of the losses it experienced after the surprise split decision by Banxico central bank officials to cut interest rates. Indeed, the very idea that markets can catch a break is propelling Peso along with other tender that suffered immediately from struggles in affording fuels. Mexico represents a key bridge between the U.S. and other Pacific Rim countries, particularly now that direct trade with China has decreased. Economically, both the U.S. and Mexico are experiencing “stagflation,” but perhaps a turnaround is ahead as negotiations for the USMCA are also coming up
