The U.S. Dollar is trading in familiar ranges to the end of last week, in which tumultuous swings took place after economic data here and across the globe painted a picture of “stagflation.”
Overview
Stubborn price growth has been cut at its pace, but inflationary pressures have not necessarily gone away, affecting consumers’ taste for everything from household items to discouraging them from even applying to purchase a home. Meanwhile, businesses have noticed, and confidence has dipped. At this moment, there is no enthusiasm for equities following overnight sessions, such as in Europe’s exchanges declining by 1.0%, as much as it took the S&P 500 to fall here in all of last week.
The mood out there is more of caution. Investors and traders seem to be wondering if we have indeed avoided a recession or if we are delaying it from materializing. This week will have plenty of opportunities for impact from decision-makers, with the main risk event feature being the Fed’s FOMC decision and press conference on Wednesday. Sprinkled throughout the week will have officials from the European Central Bank speaking at various gatherings, inflationary gauges for the U.K. and Euro-zone, as well also the OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) global outlook report.
What to Watch Today…
- No major economic events are scheduled for today
- Monex USA Online is always open
EUR ⇑
The Euro is holding to levels of recovery from the end of last week after the currency fell to fresh new lows since March as Euro-zone data pointed at contractions accompanied by ongoing inflation. The mix makes for a fragile shared currency pressured by an economy facing ongoing struggles and with concern over energy costs exacerbating in the next few months. While we have documented the lack of progress in military spending and how the hesitation has prevented the forecast for growth earlier this year, we shall see if production surprises and if consumption holds steadier than many think. We will hear from finance ministers throughout the week while we see Consumer Price Index numbers tomorrow.
GBP ⇓
Sterling is flat to begin the week as we prepare for the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. Much like the Euro-zone, the U.K. has to cope with reduced energy supplies, and the puzzle of trying to deviate from China which is aiding Russia to stay afloat while on a war effort. Throughout this week, we will get plenty of chances to get insights from Canadian financial authorities, central bankers in Japan, as well as others participating in the Bloomberg Future of Finance Conference starting Tuesday in Frankfurt.
