The U.S. Dollar is continuing to trade in mixed ranges this morning ahead of U.S.-Iran negotiations that are set to take place in Pakistan over the weekend.
Vice President Vance will be leading the U.S. delegation in Islamabad, marking the first trip to the Pakistani capital by a top U.S. official in eight years. Vance will be accompanied by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; Israeli delegates have not been invited to take part in negotiations. President Trump has stated that he is optimistic regarding a deal with Iran, but is clearly perturbed by the fact that shipping traffic via the Strait of Hormuz has not picked up in the days following the ceasefire’s announcement. Oil has continued to trade above it’s pre-war levels, but remains under $100/barrel for the time being.
At home Traders are focusing on economic data releases, a slew of which will be released this morning. The most notable number of the day is CPI, due at 830am, which should give us some insight into the inflationary effects of the war in Iran. The month-over-month figure is expected to come in at 0.9%, and the year-over-year figure at 3.4%, which is a full percent higher than the previous release. Durable Goods Orders and Factory Orders for the month of February are due at 10am, and both are expected to show slight decreases. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey for the month of April will also be released at 10am, and is expected to show that consumers are still optimistic about the state of the economy, but markedly less so than in the previous month.
What to Watch This Week…
- Monex USA Online is always open
EUR ⇑
The Euro is up against the Buck this morning for it’s fifth consecutive daily gain. German and European Union Harmonized CPI figures were perfectly in line with expectations this morning, but higher oil and gas prices are likely to weigh on energy-intensive sectors over time, derailing industrial recovery. That being said, inflation figures are “too benign” to support the level of quantitative tightening that some Traders have been betting on, and those bets have had to be pared significantly as a result. One interest rate hike from the European Central Bank is looking much more likely than three at this stage.
