The U.S. Dollar is trading in mostly familiar ranges as markets in general continue to look for guidance as talks continue between the U.S. and others over proposed tariffs.
Overview
Equities seemed to catch a bit of reprieve off of news of progress in talks between the U.S. and leaders from the European Union as well as Japan who are trying to cooperate with the White House on trade. Additionally, there is ongoing reaction to President Donald Trump’s comments heavily criticizing the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as they disagree over the potential for issues long-term as uncertainty dominates markets regarding policies and changes.
China meanwhile is also putting some pressure to get talks going, but want several pre-conditions met including an improvement in rhetoric in order to be more amicable at the negotiating table. The lack of a foreseeable resolution is making Gold the Go-to safe haven at the moment reaching yet another record high. Announcements from U.S. officials about looking to penalize Iran oil exports caused oil prices to rise. In terms of domestic data, U.S. Housing Starts for March contracted way more than expected coming in at (-11.4%) vs. (-5.4%) expected. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook survey in April was very pessimistic with a reading indicating business owners seeing struggle ahead. Without any major data points scheduled for tomorrow, there could be a slowdown in activity and liquidity as many countries take off for “Good Friday” observation and into early next week.
What to Watch This Week…
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The complete Economic Calendar can be found here.
MXN ⇑
The Mexican Peso improved to its best value over the Buck since the end of last October, primarily rising after breaking news at the time of writing that U.S. President Trump had a “very productive” call with Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. Mexico’s resilience has been good throughout the tariff proposals and the diplomacy between the two leaders is a welcomed with open arms for businesses depending on the USMCA and ease of neighboring trade. We shall see if anything changes but for now things are looking Peso-positive and slightly giving Super-Peso vibes.
EUR ⇓
The Euro is coming down from expensive levels that saw the shared currency trade at a peak not seen since February of 2022. The European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, but in her press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde explained that there is a revived consumer confidence that has kept Euro afloat. This may continue and keep Euro elevated as the currency has also received credit for recent gains across equity markets in European exchanges. If negotiations also produce some positive reports about relations with the U.S., there is possibility that the shared currency stays in current levels longer than anyone anticipated. The narrative though can quickly change in our opinion as nothing is certain.
