The U.S. Dollar is starting the week on the positive across the board as markets look forward to the release of economic figures and signs of easing from Fed officials
Overview
According to the World Interest Rate Probability calculated by Bloomberg, the Fed’s chances of a interest rate cut at the December 10th meeting stand at just 41.0% With doubt over the economic reality and a cautious approach to monetary policy, officials may find themselves too uninformed to feel comfortable reducing borrowing costs and lining up how 2026 action may look. At least tomorrow, it looks like we will be able to gauge the state of labor via private measures with the release of ADP’s Weekly Employment Preliminary Estimate.
Equity markets are on edge as recent downward shift has made them question the sustainability of gains for big technology firms. Nvidia earnings reports will be out on Wednesday. Retail-wise, Walmart and Target Inc. will also be revealing how consumers are behaving. As far as official data is concerned, statistical agencies will start working on some reports, possible we get something from September jobs. On Wednesday, we will get Fed Minutes from the October meeting, we will watch for any special comments.
What to Watch This Week…
- ADP Preliminary Employment on Tuesday
- Fed Minutes out on Wednesday 2PM
- Monex USA Online is always open
EUR ⇓
The Euro had been climbing since the start of November, but it has hit the brakes mid-month as the lower chances of a rate cut by the Fed keep the Buck buoyant. This USD resilience will be tested as we get indicators out of the Euro-zone starting with Consumer Price Index from October out on Wednesday, followed by Construction numbers Thursday, and closing with Purchasing Managers Index on Friday. Lately, better-than-expected data points have surprised and helped Euro a bit.
MXN ⇓
Although it is on the losing side at the moment, the Mexican Peso has improved by 1.8% in the last eight days after having fallen to its weakest point since end of August. Doubts surrounding the U.S. economic situation have aided in boosting other tender, especially LATAM as investors have looked for alternative investments away from high tech and even crypto. We shall see if the currency is further supported by economic indicators as we wait for a reading of Q3 Gross Domestic Product growth figures.
