Daily Market Update

GDP Swings, Dollar Shrugs

August 28, 2025

The United States Dollar is trading weaker than yesterday's close after a volatile session, and high volatility trading shows no signs of stopping in the next few sessions as the US heads into month-end preceding a holiday.

Overview

FX trading has been marred by US headlines over the last few trading days, while the current Administration continues to threaten the independence of the world’s largest and leading central bank. Just this morning, current Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook sued the sitting President Donald Trump over his attempt to oust her from her post, citing allegations of mortgage fraud, but the reaction in FX markets has been decidedly muted.

Not to be outdone, the data calendar domestically has finally picked up steam with the release of a revision of Q2 GP this morning. Following the firing of the leader of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, today’s GDP showed that the US economy grew more than expected from April to the end of June this year. While this sort of positive release would typically be cause for a booming day for USD, today’s markets are shrugging off this figure. Q2 GDP grew more than expected and was revised up from 3.0% to 3.3%, a sign that the Administration will without a doubt tout as fully positive. Nonetheless, concerns over central bank independence will overshadow any data releases this week.

 

What to Watch This Week…

  • US PCE Deflator Index JUL, Friday 8:30 AM
  • France & Germany GDP & CPI, Friday
  • Monex USA Online is always open

The complete Economic Calendar can be found here.

JPY ⇑

Japanese Yen is continuing to embody its role as a safe-haven asset, gaining steam against the US through the trading week and outperforming its major peers versus the Buck. Investors have largely searched for safety this week, which has kept the Greenback fairly even on intraday trading, but markets are decisively spooked by the U.S. Executive Branch’s ongoing attempts to make the Federal Reserve follow the lead of the Administration rather than retain its independence. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also injected some hawkish statements into the market going into yesterday’s session, adding to JPY’s edge today.

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