The U.S. Dollar is trading in mainly weaker ranges across the board ahead of the much-awaited announcement of tariffs, which hopefully brings some guidance to markets
Overview
Uncertainty is dominating all the talk and writing as we approach an eventful afternoon that will likely have its clearest reaction during tomorrow’s domestic trading session as overseas markets get to analyze the potential headwinds throughout their trading hours. Thus far in this new month and quarter, Buck fortunes seem to be following the 2025 downward-pointed line on the graph that has represented a 3.0% decline in Q1 per the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.
“Liberation Day” will be happening at 4PM later this afternoon and shall take place at the White House Rose Garden. Expect plenty of late-day volatility during that hour until 5PM since FX stays flowing past stocks, which will get their say on Thursday and Friday. Risky times ahead as markets cope with turbulence and adjustments. Data-wise, earlier the release of March’s ADP Employment Change revealed more payrolls than expected at 155K vs. 120K. Friday will have the official Non-Farm Payrolls figures, but we will get to judge Purchasing Managers Indices before all that tomorrow.
Key economic releases from the US do remain this week as well, though today the data calendar globally is fairly light. A few US PMI releases are due out today and Thursday, and employment data for March will be released Friday morning. Non-farm payrolls are expected to show the US economy added 140,000 jobs last month, a decrease from February’s figure.
What to Watch This Week…
- S&P Purchasing Managers Index Thursday
- US Nonfarm Payrolls, Friday 8:30AM
- Monex USA Online is always open
The complete Economic Calendar can be found here.
EUR ⇑
Euro strengthening is close to 1.0% since the start of last week as European markets remain steady ahead of potentially growth-harming tariffs to come. While the Euro-zone may not get a blanket tariff schedule, leaders are trying to unify in reciprocating where they can. Tomorrow’s PMIs will also matter to the shared currency while we look to next week when inflation and other sectors will be measured.
MXN ⇓
The Mexican Peso is unmoved at the moment but shall move plenty as we get nearer the “Liberation Day” event. The resilience of the Peso is being credited to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum supposedly making ability to keep good relations with President Trump, which makes plenty in the market feel Mexico will be able to skirt U.S. tariffs. We will be closely monitoring the developments as they arrive.
