The U.S. Dollar is trading in favorable ranges against its G10 peers this morning
The U.S. Dollar is trading in favorable ranges against its G10 peers this morning ahead of releases of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for the month of March at 10am and the Kansas City Fed’s Services Activity data at 11am. Richmond Fed President Barkin is schedule to speak at 11 as well. Expect today’s consumer sentiment release to carry more weight than usual due to the residual impact of tariffs and inflationary impacts of the Iranian conflict on consumers both being captured in this reading. A downside miss on headline sentiment alongside elevated inflation expectations would be constructive for rate hike expectations.
What to Watch This Week…
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GBP ⇓
The British Pound is the G10’s biggest loser versus the Buck this morning following the release of Retail Sales figures that showed a decline for the month of February, thereby slowing the year-over-year growth rate, and reinforcing the idea that the UK economy is facing a stagflation dilemma. The Bank of England’s next meeting is scheduled for April 30th, where Traders are pricing in a 57.0% likelihood of a rate hike.
EUR ⇓
The Euro is down against the Greenback this morning. The European Central Bank’s Pierre Wunsch stated this morning that a rate hike in April is not out of the question but further indicated that if the war in Iran has not concluded by June, then the ECB may be forced to hike. Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel has also suggested that rates may need to be raised as soon as next month, while the Bank of Finland’s Olli Rehn has urged the governing council to take more caution in their approach to policy. ECB policy board member Isabel Schnabel is scheduled to speak at 12pm.
