The U.S. Dollar is trading in tight ranges this morning as markets await for data gauging if the labor sector is cooling down or improving
Overview
This short week has all kinds of figures to try and make a case for the Federal Reserve to be stimulus-driven. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been tilting a little bit towards the “dovish” side by stating last month that Fed officials would be supportive if the struggles for job seekers rise. JOLTS Job Openings and quit levels will be out later at 10AM providing an analysis for July. Factory Orders as well as Durable Goods Orders will also be released at that time.
After some speculation that the Fed would be more concerned about inflationary pressures building which brought down the probability of cuts for the remainder of the year, chances of a 25 basis-points cut for the September 17th meeting stand above 90.0% when being in the low 80s last week. Investors and traders are also eager to form a narrative once Friday’s officials Non-Farm Payrolls come out. While tomorrow we get ADP employment numbers, this statistic has not correlated in recent times with official results in private jobs growth and other detailed measures. For now, the Buck is around its highest level in week and half.
What to Watch This Week…
- Durable Goods Orders, JOLTS, Factory Orders 10AM
- ADP Employment change Tomorrow 8:15AM
- US Nonfarm Payrolls, Friday 8:30AM
- Monex USA Online is always open
The complete Economic Calendar can be found here.
EUR ⇑
The Euro is slightly climbing this morning following pieces of data suggesting a better situation than had been expected. August Purchasing Managers Index survey came out better than expected, sustaining a positive reading when firm supply decisionmakers provided their thoughts. More importantly, the Producers Price Index revealed that inflation remains stubborn and steadily growing with the month advancing by 0.4% vs. 0.3% and the yearly average going from 0.1% to 0.2%. Tomorrow, we get Retails Sales while Friday is the third revision of Q2 Gross Domestic Product, which is hoping to maintain a positive-territory reading at 0.1%.
MXN ⇑
The Mexican Peso is also gaining ground over the Dollar, being boosted by a somewhat better reading regarding Consumer Confidence. Although the survey was still in pessimistic territory, it was a better result than what was registered in July. Data from Mexico has shown that there has been a slowdown and now we are gauging just how much of a threat there is of contraction and potentially recession. Thursday will provide numbers measuring investment, auto sales, and private consumption. We will watch how these could move the needle and be potential for Peso restrengthening is on the positive side.
