The U.S. Dollar is trading in mostly familiar ranges across the board ahead of major data releases on Wednesday as well as the July 4th holiday.
Overview
On Thursday, MonexUSA offices will be closed in observance. Risk markets are in cautious mode as the globe is facing a transition in various regions. While elections that occurred in Mexico and France had their first round of congressional voting, the United Kingdom will be very active as we celebrate independence while they go to the polls. With changes in the guard taking place, investors and economists are adjusting to gauge what may come down the line if changes are proposed and implemented.
Political turmoil and anxiety have gotten in the way of market progress, especially in the Eurozone. France and Germany are both striving to come out of contractionary pressure in their economies, but emerging markets are also coping with a global recovery that seems arrested as China struggles to be the engine of productivity it was hoping to be by this time of the year. Stimulus-driven central banks differ from the Fed, and thus, the Buck is holding on to gains from June as a result of central bank policy divergence as well as being a safe haven in the midst of so much uncertainty.
JOLTS Job Openings in May released earlier showed there are less opportunities for work out there which should spark interest from Fed officials. Expect some volatility as Chairman Jerome Powell is questioned at an ECB Forum in Portugal. Tomorrow will be data-heavy with a slew of indicators in ADP Employment, Factory as well as Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, and Minutes from the last Fed meeting.
What to Watch Today…
- U.S. FOMC Minutes Wednesday
- 4th of July Thursday – MonexUSA Closed for Holiday
- Monex USA Online is always open.
EUR ⇑
While no currency pair is making any exciting moves at the moment, the Euro has the potential to go higher following “hawkish” commentary from ECB President Christine Lagarde. At the forum with Powell, Lagarde explained that inflation in the Eurozone remains too stubborn to start making guarantees about future interest-rate deductions. June Consumer Price Index numbers released revealed that the year-over-year average remains at 2.5%, a level still too high for comfort. What is worrisome about the Eurozone is that prices have not come down while growth has also failed to impress. Avoiding recessions is not necessarily a sign that countries are on the right track. Purchasing Managers Index, as well as Producers Price Index, will be out tomorrow.
MXN ⇑
The Mexican Peso is up against the Buck after more evidence that the country remains a desired place for investment. April Gross fixed Investment figures showed vast improvement and exceeded estimates. We will continue to monitor any talks of radical proposals and what is to come in Q4 when Claudia Sheinbaum takes over, but for now, Mexico remains a beacon of stable investment as it will continue being crucial to U.S. business interests.
