The U.S. Dollar is being pulled in opposite directions this morning including falling three-tenths against the Euro but gaining more than half a percent versus sterling.
Overview
American equities jumped at their fastest pace since March yesterday as the steep sell-off of the past two weeks unwinds. Risk sentiment in the U.S. looks positive again following a report from Pfizer and BioNTech SE that said initial lab studies show a third does of their Covid-19 vaccine is effective against the Omicron variant. Still, traders across asset classes must continue to weigh the positive vaccine news with the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will make hawkish moves to stem inflation. Friday’s consumer price index reading remains the main risk event on this week’s agenda. The Federal Reserve’s next meeting concludes next week on December 15th. U.S. job openings data for October is due out at 10 a.m. but the print is unlikely to materially affect the direction of the greenback.
What to Watch Today…
- Bank of Canada meeting at 10 a.m.
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CAD
The Canadian dollar has ebbed and flowed between modest gains and losses in early trading as market participants position themselves ahead of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy decision at 10 a.m. It is widely expected that the BoC will “lay the groundwork” for an eventual rate hike. The BoC has already ended its emergency bond-buying program.
We do not expect the central bank to hike rates today, but the market is pricing in a 50% chance of a first hike by January. Traders will look for signals from the BoC today to solidify their forecasts. We expect 4 or 5 25 basis point hikes over the next twelve months as inflation is at a two-decade high in Canada.
GBP
The British pound sunk more than half a percent this morning on news that the United Kingdom could introduce new Covid-19 restrictions to curb the spread of the new variant. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to announce what is known as “Plan B.” The plan is expected to include vaccine passports for larger venues and possibly a new order to work from home.
The Financial Times reports that the work from home order could come as soon as tonight. The restrictions are expected to be announced sometime today so GBP/USD could see a choppy session.
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