The U.S. Dollar is down this morning against its G10 peers
The U.S. Dollar is down this morning against its G10 peers ahead of a slew of economic data releases this morning, with the most attention being paid to ADP Private Payrolls and ISM Services PMI. ADP Private Payrolls were released at 815am and showed a reduction of 32k jobs in November, versus an estimated gain of 10k. The ISM Services PMI is due at 10am and expectations are that there will be a slight contraction from October, but those figures should remain in healthy growth territory.
The Fed is currently in its communication blackout ahead of the policy meeting next Wednesday, December 10th, so today’s data is incredibly useful in predicting what action policymakers could take. The Fed is focused on the employment segment of its dual mandate going into this meeting. September payroll figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a larger-than-expected increase of 119k, but the unemployment rate sits at a four-year high, and private payrolls are not increasing as expected. The current probability of a 25-bps cut next week is currently at 93.9%.
What to Watch This Week…
- PCE Composite on Friday 8:30AM
- Monex USA Online is always open
EUR ⇑
The Euro is up nearly half of a percent against the Buck this morning, to its highest level in two months. The Eurozone also released better than expected PMI figures this morning, with a print of 52.8 versus 52.4 expected, which suggests that the wider European economy is building some momentum. It is worth keeping an eye on employment and domestic demand, but EUR has a clear trajectory assuming that momentum doesn’t fall off.
CAD ⇑
The British Pound is the G10’s best performer against the Greenback this morning, up nearly three quarters of a percent, due to better-than-expected PMI figures of 51.2 versus 50.5 expected. GBP has been under pressure this week, but it appears that traders have finally moved past the budget decision and accompanying politics and have reached a turning point. While it is difficult to be outright bullish on GBP in the current climate, this is the highest level for Sterling in nearly two months.
