The U.S. Dollar is trading lower against it’s G10 peers this morning following a much lower than expected CPI print
The U.S. Dollar is gaining against it G10 peers this morning ahead of speeches from several Fed members later today, starting with Fed Governor Christopher Waller at 8:15am, who it is rumored will be interviewed by President Trump for the Fed chair position despite Hasset and Warsh being considered early favorites. We’ll also be getting crude oil inventories at 10:30am, with oil receiving a more than 2% boost this morning as a result of Trump’s blockade on Venezuela.
The Dollar is positioned to grind higher into tomorrow, which will be a much more eventful day for data with the release of U.S. CPI figures and interest rate decisions from the central banks of the European Union, United Kingdom, Norway, and Sweden. The U.S. CPI print is going to be a key figure to watch, as yesterday’s unemployment release confirmed existing fears surrounding a potentially softer labor market, with Traders beginning to price in additional easing in the first half of 2026 as a result.
What to Watch This Week…
- BOJ Meeting on Friday
- Monex USA Online is always open
GBP ⇑
The British Pound is a top performer against the Greenback this morning following yesterday’s release of lower-than-expected CPI numbers and this morning’s subsequent, if widely expected, 25 bps reduction in interest rates in a narrow 5-4 vote from the Bank of England. The BoE now sits at the top of its neutral rate estimate at 3.75%, and the Monetary Policy Committee has dropped its guidance for continued gradual easing as a result. 2026 policy will be guided by how much weight each member places on demand concerns vs supply side constraints.
EUR ⇑
The Euro has regained ground against the Buck this morning following the European Central Bank’s announcement that they will be holding key deposit rates at 2.0%. Policy makers have reaffirmed their commitment to stabilizing inflation at 2.0% and have advised that future decisions will remain data dependent and will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Euro Zone inflation currently sits at 2.1%, and ECB projections have them returning to 2.0% in 2028.
