The U.S. dollar is drifting in fairly tight ranges this morning as traders await tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision.
Overview
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1 percent, and the greenback is 0.2 percent lower versus the Euro and British pound.The Fed is one of nearly 20 central banks meeting this week. We do not expect the dollar to move with any conviction until the conclusion of the meeting. Market participants throughout asset classes are awaiting clues from the central bank on the timing of tapering stimulus and eventual interest rate hikes.
According to a Bloomberg survey of fund managers, the biggest downside risk to stocks over the next 12 months is a hasty policy shift by central banks to tame inflation. If central banks indeed take away the punch bowl, equities will suffer, and the dollar stands to benefit. This morning’s docket showed that inflation pressures remain and continue to tick higher. The producer price index rose 0.8% in November, above the high-end of the forecast of 0.7%. The so-called “core” reading that strips out food and energy costs rose 0.7% in the month.
What to Watch Today…
- No major economic events scheduled for today
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CAD
The Canadian dollar is under pressure again this morning and is down nearly a percent over the last three trading sessions. The loonie is down for four sessions in a row. The price of crude erased its overnight gains, denying relief for the Canadian dollar. USD/CAD is approaching its year-to-date high that was last hit on December 3rd.
GBP
The beleaguered British pound is finally getting some relief this morning, rising slightly against the greenback. Data showed that the U.K. jobs market remains solid with the October unemployment rate coming in at 4.2%. Additionally, the jobs posted hit 1.22 million in the three months to November, pointing to record levels of worker demand.U.K. spokesperson Max Blain said that there are no plans to further tighten pandemic rules. IMF Managing Director also lent her voice to the positive outlook and said that U.K. lockdowns are unlikely.Despite the relief for the sterling, it remains within a percent of its year-to-date lows versus the U.S. dollar. The Bank of England concludes its meeting on Thursday.
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