The U.S. Dollar is dropping in value following the release of underwhelming February Non-Farm Payroll and Employment Situation numbers as well as downwardly revised figures from the month prior.
Overview
Indeed, the original reading for January fell to 125K from 143K while February numbers came short at 151K vs. 160K.
The Unemployment Rate rose slightly from 4.0% to 4.1% with a highlight of a loss of 10K payrolls in the government sector. Average Hourly Earnings also came in at a slower pace than in January. Overall, these indicators help pain a labor sector that is experiencing a slowdown that could exacerbate with tariff anxiety adding to business austerity and layoffs.
The negative reaction is being felt in equities and for the Buck against most pairs, with the exception of some majors such as Canadian Dollar that have been hurt by trade uncertainty as well as very poor job figures. Later today, all eyes and ears will focus on commentary from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell who will speak at an event in New York at around 12:20PM about the economic outlook, which seems less bright at the moment. Per the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index, this is the weakest USD level since November 7th.
What to Watch This Week…
- Powell speaks at around 12:20PM
- Monex USA Online is always open
Complete Economic Calendar can be found here.
EUR ⇑
The Euro keeps on climbing to fresh new highs since Q4 of last year and is having its best week of strengthening over the Buck since 2009. Germany’s move to open up spending in the face of challenges on many fronts both economically and in foreign policy has brought new life to the common tender with hopes that infrastructure and military upgrades will come soon. For more details on the plans and implementation of these measures, see our March 2025 outlook.
CAD ⇓
The Canadian Dollar had improved this week to its strongest level since end of January, but has lost over half a percent this morning after data showing a struggling labor sector. The Net Change in Employment for February was supposed to register 20.0K more jobs, but only 1.0K were added. This comes as the nation copes with the shock of tariffs as many companies feel rushed to make adjustments that were considered unthinkable because of an existing trade pact in the form of USMCA (former NAFTA). While tariffs have been prevented, for now, the nervousness will continue until there is a definite goal and guidance over what is trying to be achieved in the back-and-forth talks.
