Buck steady, Markets more optimistic, European record

The U.S. Dollar remains trading in mostly tight ranges across the board as markets take a breather from news reports highlighting an ease of tensions between the U.S. and Iran after some fears of escalation.

While military presence continues, Iranian leadership warned the U.S. about having to prepare after the build-up of carriers around it and agreed on “guiding principles” in nuclear negotiations. Meanwhile, investors took advantage of the dip in equities and the calmer environment after a start to the week marked by anxiety. Gold prices resurged and rose above $4,900.00 per ounce. There will be uncertainty tied to the Middles East and well as concerns over A.I. valuations as tech firms prepare for massive spending.

In the macro world, we will get insight from the last Fed meeting as the Minutes are released later at 2PM. The lack of consensus will be interesting to detail and odds may change for future cuts. Currently, the June meeting’s chances of resulting in a 25-basis-point reduction stand right at 50.0%. At the time of writing, December Durable Goods came out showing less contraction than expected at (-1.4%) vs. (-2.0%). January Industrial Production will be out at 9:15AM. Later in the week, we will get some labor and housing gauges Thursday while Friday is packed with inflationary key statistics such as Personal Consumption Expenditures along with Gross Domestic Product for Q4 and Consumer Sentiment.

What to Watch This Week…

U.S. Industrial Production later 9:15AM
Fed Minutes 2PM
Monex USA Online is always open

The complete Economic Calendar can be found here .

EUR ⇓

The Euro is slightly down, but not for bad reasons as stocks keep rising following a trend from 2025. A round of positive earnings for big European firms set a new record for the Stoxx 600 Index. Additionally, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is reportedly considering leaving her post early, scheduled to finish her term as chairwoman in October 2027, in order to allow current France’s President Emmanuel Macron to have a say and input in choosing her successor. The recent political crisis over budgeting in the French legislative chambers made for a chaotic situation and Lagarde wants to have a steady hand chosen for her job.

JPY ⇑

Sterling is mostly unchanged after inflation figures in the form of January Consumer Price Index came in just as expected. There is inconsistency in price growth with December’s 0.4% rise being erased in January after a little deflation for the month at (-0.5%). A specific measure for Retail confirmed the drop while suppliers at their end did not experience any changes in prices as Producers Price Index registered at 0.0% vs. 0.2% estimated. The Bank of England will meet on March 19^th and after staying put on monetary policy, they are expected to turn “dovish” and cut by 25bps with odds now at 82.5%. Disagreement to do so may push Pound value back up and quickly.

Daily Market Update