The U.S. Dollar is trading in mostly weaker ranges this morning as the month of March, which could still end up being its best monthly performance since 2024, comes to a close.
Most currencies are regaining some of the ground lost in recent trading sessions as the inflationary pressures developing globally force for “hawkishness” in central banks. The Buck is weakening after rising to its highest overall point since last Thanksgiving, end of November, per the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index. According to the MSCI emerging Markets Currency Index, that basket of currencies is recovering after collapsing to the weakest since the previously mentioned holiday period.
It is indeed possible for the Greenback to climb by 2.0% and to come out a major victor for March, a month primarily characterized by anxiety over armed conflict in the Middle East that has spread beyond Iran and Israel. The impact has been significant also for American consumers, now facing $4.0/gallon of gas for the first time since 2022. Latest from the White House is that negotiations have made progress, but major damage has occurred after drone attacks over Dubai and Kuwait tanker attacked. As far as data points, later at 10AM we get the Conf. Board Consumer Confidence and Expectations survey from March simultaneously with JOLTS job Openings and Quits from February.
What to Watch This Week…
- US Nonfarm Payrolls, Friday 8:30AM
- Monex USA Online is always open
EUR ⇑
The Euro is trying to mount a bit of a comeback to get out of a hole it fell into recently that dropped it to its weakest level since July of last year. Throughout the first quarter, the shared currency has been trading all over the place, at one point hitting its highest value over the Dollar since 2021. As mentioned earlier, inflation is absolutely rising for all with March Consumer Price Index for the Euro-zone coming in at 2.5%, which represents the highest since January 2025. S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index will be out tomorrow.
MXN ⇑
The Mexican Peso is appreciating after naturally dropping following last week’s mostly surprising move by central bank., Banxico, to cut its main interest rate by 25 basis points. The split decision by Banxico officials caused a 2.0%+ decline for MXN, falling to its worst since December 10th. However, the “Super Peso” may not be down for too long after commentary from Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum who explained that her administration is not scared by a Peso losing some steam since it is still stronger than it was a year ago. She is not joking with MXN now 13.6% stronger than it was last end of March
