The U.S. Dollar is trading in mildly stronger ranges across the board as markets prepare for a week with a focus on the effects of inflation and major geopolitical dialogue.
Overview
Tomorrow, we will be getting July’s Consumer Price Index print while the suppliers’ side in the form of Producer Price Index will be released on Wednesday. Jobless Claims will be of some value on Thursday, while on Friday we close out with a Retail Sales, Industrial Production and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence survey.
As much as we will watch for plenty of economic indicators and how they will affect the Buck, this week is also crucial for key items that could make the narrative for the Dollar even more complicated. Tuesday also represents the end of the China-U.S. truce over tariff implementations. Both parties have presented packages for a trade war in case no resolution is found. This could impact currency pairs idiosyncratically as well. It is likely the next 48 hours we will hear something, hoping for details.
Friday is scheduled to be an important day as President Trump is set to meet with Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska where markets are looking for possible breakthrough in making efforts to negotiate a ceasefire or perhaps some sort of peace. The Buck could be due for a tough ride if inflationary numbers come in high and form a picture of “stagflation” following poor growth numbers with surprisingly low Non-Farm Payrolls. The mix of a variety of risk makes for a volatile time even as some of the summer holiday use takes some labor as well as trading activity away.
What to Watch This Week…
- Consumer Price Index Tuesday 8:30AM
- Producer Price Index Wednesday 8:30AM
- Retail Sales, Industrial Production Friday 8:30AM
- University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Friday 10AM
- Monex USA Online is always open
The complete Economic Calendar can be found here.
EUR ⇓
The Euro is starting off slipping against the Buck with markets keeping an eye on American developments as well as data looking back at Q2 performance. Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter will be out on Thursday with economists looking to confirm if the
Euro-zone was indeed able to avoid a contraction. The first reading came in at 0.1% so anything higher could appreciate the shared currency while flat or worse will certainly put downward pressure on it undoubtedly. Industrial Production from June will also be out then with nothing else to watch out for other than ZEW Survey Expectations tomorrow.
MXN ⇓
The Mexican Peso is slipping a bit following the release of poor numbers showing there is struggle in finding consistent growth. June’s Industrial Production was expected to expand by 0.3% but instead came in at (-0.1%), while prior month figures were at 0.7%. The annual average remains negative at (-0.4%). A bit of silver lining was better-than-expected Manufacturing at an actual 0.7% vs. 0.2% estimate. More detailed figures will arrive after this week, so movements could be limited to whatever plays out for the U.S. and rest of global community.
