The U.S. Dollar is trading in mostly familiar ranges with a tilt towards the downside as the U.S. government shutdown leaves us without data to view and analyze.
Overview
Nevertheless, stock markets are moving and a rally based on great tech earnings is overshadowing the negativity over the lack of federal stability at the moment. Congress talk continues back-and-forth while the financial environment is sustained on the potential for more easing and an economy that is on paper performing and outgrowing other key regions. Meanwhile, gold continues to be traded heavily and rising in price with an MSCI gauge of global gold equities surging by 135.0% thus far in 2025.
Later at 9:45AM we shall still see the S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index and right after at 10AM the Institute of Supply Management indices for Services. Both measures are expected to relay a sense of expansion so anything contradicting it could affect the Buck. Without eyes on official fundamentals we will watch for headlines that may create idiosyncratic stories for each currency pair.
What to Watch This Week…
- Monex USA Online is always open
EUR ⇑
The Euro is currently on the rise as the Buck dwindles in value all across the board. Euro-zone data did indeed come out with PMIs for September revealing an expansionary reading as expected. Next week will be heavy for statistical releases with everything from inflation to Retail Sales as well as Construction being reviewed. Something to watch for is retaliatory tariffs that may emerge from the EU side as recent announcements have forced leaders to set their own levies.
MXN ⇑
The Mexican Peso is also climbing over the U.S. Dollar as the lack of information on labor lowers faith in the reserve currency. Data points from earlier this morning showed surprising expansion when contractions were forecast. Gross Fixed Investment climbed in July by 1.6% vs 1.0% and Private Consumption came out in positive territory advancing 0.1% over the (-0.2%) estimate. Inflation measures will be pivotal next week.
