The U.S. Dollar is trading in weaker ranges all across the board, down to its weakest level overall since the start of October according to the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.
Indeed, the Buck is closing out the year on the downside, and it is on pace to end its worst annual performance since 2017. The second half of 2025 has been marked by some recovery in the midst of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, but the worst first six-months run since 1973, when the tracking of the currency was invented, proved to be too much to overcome and flip it all around. Currently, a bit of late-year risk-taking is also hurting the Buck with investors and traders jumping on equities and having a three-day winning streak in the S&P 500 Index.
The release of various economic indicators this morning gave a mixed situation for the U.S. economy after Q3 Gross Domestic Product revealed a 4.3% advance when only 3.3% was estimated. Personal Consumption also rose higher than expected by 3.5% vs. 2.7%, thus it aided inflation for personal products as the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 2.9%. Meanwhile, November figures for Durable Goods Orders showed a bigger slip than anticipated with a (-2.2%) contraction, worse than the (-1.5%) predicted. November Industrial Production will be out at 9:15AM while December Richmond Manufacturing and Conference Boad Consumer Confidence gauges will come out at 10AM. Tomorrow the 24th, Christmas Eve, our MonexUSA offices will close slightly earlier at 3:00PM EST.
What to Watch This Week…
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JPY ⇑
The Japanese Yen is rising like all other tender and getting away from its weakest levels to the Buck since January. There has been some buzz around FX intervention that has sparked enthusiasm, but the overall market activity may not keep Yen up too long. There are plenty of banks speculating about intervention with European ones such as Societe Generale stating there is a very compelling case for making a move now. Japan, typically a beacon of steadiness and not a lot of exciting risk has transformed a bit this year into a environment of volatility and unpredictability. We shall see what comes for 2026 as traders ponder the chances of long-term tightening.
EUR ⇑
The Euro is up to its strongest level over the Dollar since late September. Without any data for the Euro-zone until January 2nd, the shared currency is being aided by doubts over the American economic picture while optimism is growing that more integration amongst EU members will lead to more internal reliability industrially and militarily. Although there was some struggle in the second half of the year, the Euro climbed by over 14.0% in 2025.
