The U.S. Dollar is starting a brand-new quarter with quiet strengthening as markets in Europe, Australia, and Hong Kong remain shut down for Easter holiday celebrations.
Overview
Equities, in general, hold steady following a week, during which exchanges such as the S&P 500 entered record territory along with gold. While Fed officials, even Chairman Jerome Powell, found ways to discourage expectations of “dovish” monetary action, markets are satisfied with disinflation and are building up some confidence.
There will be some Manufacturing and Construction data released at 10 AM while we look into Durable Goods Orders tomorrow and jobs, as well as Purchasing Managers, gauges on Wednesday. March’s Employment Situation will close out the week on Friday. Overall, we will be getting a plethora of global figures that should aid in moving the needle as we look for dollar guidance.
What to Watch Today…
- Durable Goods Orders Tuesday
- US Nonfarm Payrolls, Friday 8:30 AM
- Euro-Zone CPI Wednesday
- Monex USA Online is always open.
EUR ⇓
While the other side of the Atlantic observes a day off, traders can prepare for the economic indicators to be released throughout the week. While we get specifics on Germany and France tomorrow, Euro-zone Manufacturing PMIs will be out as well then. Regional inflation and unemployment come out on Wednesday, Services on Thursday, and Retail Sales on Friday. Euro strengthening will be highly dependent on the positivity of its data going forward as the European Central Bank readies itself to cut interest rates, more than likely ahead of the Federal Reserve. Dovish pivot can only be prevented from damaging the shared currency if improvement and progress are what the readings exude.
GBP ⇓
This week will also feature pivotal data points for the U.K. looking at inflation, confidence about prices, and PMIs. Sterling has fallen recently after having a stellar start to March that saw it reach its highest level against the dollar since July 2023 during the first half. As American exceptionalism kicked in during the last days of March, the gains quickly vanished. We accurately foresaw the swings for the currency pair, which added up to a 1.0% loss in GBP for Q1.
