Daily Market Update

All over the place following heavy week

July 31, 2023

The U.S. Dollar is starting off the week in mixed ranges as the globe tries to digest all the happenings from last week and form some sort of narrative for what is left of the Summer and the year.

Overview

Economic momentum seems to be on the side of the U.S., but investors and traders are also trying to figure out where the rest of the world heads from here. China announced stimulus measures, but they fell short of a direct fiscal boost to consumers and firms as many desired more comfort in risk appetite.

The Japanese Yen and other currencies of the Pacific Rim have been the biggest movers, with JPY seeing losses above 1.0% while the “Antipodean” Aussie and Kiwi dollars gain over USD, way over half a percent. The Bank of Japan failed, once more, to deliver on more hawkish expectations as it allowed 10-year treasury yields to rise above a ceiling, but explained the idea was not to deviate from accommodative policy. Meanwhile, China’s willingness to spur economic growth and activity is a good development for the countries down under. For now, August will start with mixed FX, but a clear hope for a soft landing for the economy this year.

What to Watch Today…

  • No major economic events are scheduled for today
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GBP ⇑

After some major risk events last week, we continue with some central bank action on this one, with the Bank of England scheduled for Thursday. It will be very interesting to gauge BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s take on what is ahead after the European Central Bank’s cautiousness and confident Fed. The U.K. economy has managed to avoid doon-&-Gloom scenarios, which have elevated its value, but stubborn 45-year-record inflationary levels remain as food and fuel remains concerns for the long-term with a war that is affecting the Eurasian landmass and its ability to trade with the ease pre-conflict. Expect plenty of inquiries about the strength of the British economy going forward and the tone Bailey will have when it is addressed that interest rates may be denting the economy too much.

AUD ⇑

The Australian Dollar is up today following positive headlines out of China and a belief in markets that there is room for a soft landing by the end of the year. Additionally, we will hear from the Reserve Bank of Australia tomorrow and see if they hike as the Fed did after having paused at their July meeting. July has been tumultuous for the “Aussie” as it has traded wildly within a 4.0% range the whole month.

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