Currency Outlook

NOVEMBER 2022 – IN BRIEF

What Happened

  • Per the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, the buck managed to stay afloat by a small margin as it lost value across the board
  • October proved to be a month of FX recovery and mixed ranges as risk events unfolded
  • Euro experienced its first monthly gain since May as some energy fears have subsided
  • Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is in after Liz Truss quit, making the shortest run ever of any PM
  • A few central banks signaled a need to consider slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes

 

Monex USA’s View

  • Any further news on China’s will to reopen and end Zero-COVID policies may lead to further USD deterioration
  • OPEC+ production cuts will keep oil prices wild as the White House seeks to counter the move in repudiation as it afflicts Europe
  • Sterling has already shown the ability to recover quickly and may have room to rise
  • Everyone will keep a close eye on central bank commentary that leads to believe a turnaround on tightening is coming

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